Strong Job Market Offers Trump a Chance at Reelection

http://www.politico.com

On Friday, the November Jobs Report was released and surprisingly included excellent numbers about the state of the American economy. The report laid out how employers added 266,000 jobs in November bringing the unemployment rate to the 50 year low of 3.5%. Additionally, wage growth clocked in at 3.1% with wages for lower income groups growing faster than those for higher income groups.

This jobs report is a potential boon for President Donald Trump’s reelection chances in 2020 if the economy continues growing at a fast pace. As the president’s agenda has been otherwise stalled and his administration has faced scrutiny from impeachment investigations, he has tried to tout the strong economy to voters as the principal reason to reelect him. Many analysts have pointed to Bill Clinton’s reelection which was buoyed by the booming ’90’s economy despite his numerous scandals.

However, many leading Democratic challengers have tried to poke holes in President Trump’s arguments about the strength of the US economy. Democrats point out the issue of income inequality and corporate excesses that they say harm average Americans. As the election approaches, it is necessary to pay attention to the strength of the economy, for it will be at the top of minds of millions of voters as the head into ballot boxes this upcoming November.

Agenda Dilemma: USMCA or Impeachment?

http://www.foxbusiness.com

As 2019 comes to a close, Congress has limited time to finish many items on its lengthy agenda. For months, House Democrats and the White House have been deadlocked in their discussions to resolve policy disagreements over the USMCA, the major trade deal struck by the Trump administration with Mexico and Canada to revise NAFTA. However, as impeachment has become the central agenda item in the House, the goal of passing the USMCA by Christmas seems to be falling short.

Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA), the Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer met last week to move past the impasse, and while significant progress made, no agreement was finalized. Many moderate Democrats elected in 2018 in Trump districts are keen on passing to USMCA to show a tangible bipartisan issue that they have helped resolve to their voters.

Nevertheless, the nation and Congress’s focus has shifted from trade policy to the landmark impeachment hearings taking place in the House Intelligence Committee. Many progressive Democrats buoyed by their voters’ anger towards President Trump have prioritized impeaching President Trump. President Trump has pointed out the lack of policymaking on important issues such as trade and drug prices due to the impeachment inquiry.

The House’s end of year agenda will be determined by Speaker Nancy Pelosi as she balances the wishes of varying perspectives within the Democratic Caucus. While difficult, it is entirely possible that Speaker Pelosi accomplishes both passing a revised USMCA and voting on articles of impeachment by year’s end. Speaker Pelosi has incredible political instincts, and Americans should not underestimate her abilities to accomplish the House’s most pressing issues.

Michael Bloomberg 2020?

http://www.nypost.com

Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor and multi-billionaire American businessman, appears to be entering the 2020 Democratic presidential race. Despite publicly declining to run months ago, many close to Bloomberg have said that he has grown concerned with the leading candidates and their ability to beat President Trump in the general election. In particular, as an avowed capitalist, he has grown concerned with many of the policies of Senators Bernie Sanders (D-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) who have championed far-left economic policies.

While Bloomberg has not formally announced, he has completed the paperwork to be on the ballot in Alabama, a clear signal that he is serious about launching a presidential run. This would not be the first time Bloomberg has toyed with a presidential run. In 2016, Bloomberg actively explored a possible independent presidential campaign but decided against it after polling revealed that he would likely hurt Democrat Hillary Clinton and propel then Republican candidate Donald Trump into office.

Many staffers on frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign fear that a Bloomberg bid would take away votes from their candidate who is currently occupying the moderate “lane” of the Democratic primary. They believe that Bloomberg appeals to the same group of voters and would weaken Biden, allowing Warren or Sanders to overtake Biden in support. This dynamic could be especially crucial in early states such as Iowa where the polls are close and would impact the course of the rest of the Democratic primary. Michael Bloomberg would be an interesting and unique voice in an already crowded Democratic Primary and potentially could impact the outcome of the presidential race.

Impeachment Inquiry Continues: Ukraine Quid Pro Quo?

http://www.bbc.com

After Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry into potential wrongdoing by President Trump in the withholding of military aid to Ukraine, Democratic investigations have quickly ramped up after hearing from key witnesses involved in the scandal. Testimony from officials such as the former ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor and ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland have implicated the president in a quid pro quo where military aid for Ukraine was tied to opening investigations into the DNC and Hunter Biden, the son of his potential rival Joe Biden.

These revelations have bolstered criticisms of President Trump by Democrats in Congress and have created a framework for a potential impeachment after the conclusion of the investigations. Democrats believe that the president’s use of the power of his office to find dirt on his opponents violates federal law and is a threat to the American democratic system. They believe that the steady flow of incriminating evidence and testimony is slowly changing public opinion in favor of impeachment.

Republicans, however, have been quick to defend the President. While some have found it difficult to defend the president on the core allegations, stalwart defenders of President Trump in the House of Representatives have been quick to attack the process of the impeachment inquiry. They argue that an official vote should be taken in the House like the two previous impeachment investigations to provide the president fair due process and allow Republicans to have subpoena power. A group of House Republicans stormed a closed door, classified hearing from one witness to protest the process which they believe does not allow input of Republican voices.

President Trump has become frustrated by what he views as a weak response to the impeachment inquiry. However, Democrats have become determined to continue investigating and revealing potentially damning information that could establish a clear quid pro quo implicating the president. While it seems likely that the House is set for impeaching the president, it remains unclear if Republican Senators will turn on the president and convict him.

NBA Faces Criticism over its Stance on Hong Kong Protests

http://www.independent.co.uk

In one small tweet, Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey sent the NBA into an international political firestorm. Sunday night, Morey in a tweet that was quickly deleted wrote “Fight for freedom, stand with Hong Kong.” However, this support for pro-Democracy protesters in Hong Kong quickly angered millions of Chinese mainlanders and the Chinese Communist Party, leading multiple Chinese businesses to sever relations with the NBA. The Houston Rockets known by many Chinese as “China’s team” due to to Yao Ming’s widespread popularity has been the subject of multiple boycotts.

The NBA quickly tried to soften the Chinese blowback by issuing statements affirming that Mr. Morsey’s statements do not represent the views of the NBA. Additionally, the league has mandated players and coaches not to talk about the Hong Kong protests. At preseason games such as a Washington Wizards game in DC, NBA officials have removed protester signs supporting Hong Kong.

However, these moves to placate and appease Chinese officials and fans have ignited a blowback in the United States. Fans and members of Congress have accused the NBA on fundamental American principles such as freedom of speech and democracy in order to protect their financial dealings in China. Many have pointed out the irony in the NBA’s outspoken positions on domestic issues such as the Black Lives Matter movement but silence on the human rights abuses of the Chinese government such as the internment of thousands of Uighur Muslims.

As US-China relations have become increasingly tense, the NBA as well as other multinational corporations have found difficulties in operating successfully in both countries due to the political differences. In China, companies that condemn the government, acknowledge Taiwan, or recognize the existence of the Tiananmen Square Massacre face major repercussions. However, this government control is anthem to American values. It has become increasingly clear that the United States and China have entered a quasi Cold War which will decide whether constitutional democracy is still the supreme form of government.

Ukraine Whistleblower Report Roils Washington

http://www.businessinsider.com

Congress and the White House were thrust into the national spotlight after reporting revealed that a whistleblower report had brought to light serious and troubling allegations about conversations between President Donald Trump and Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky. These allegations from a whistleblower who worked with President Trump’s national security team allege that the President Trump encouraged the Ukranian President to investigate potential Democratic opponent Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, and his business dealings in that country.

These allegations, if true, would be demonstrably illegal and would constitute collusion with a foreign power using the office of president to improve Trump’s chances of reelection. These reports accelerated support in the Democratic Caucus of the House of Representatives for opening an impeachment inquiry. Many moderate Democrats such as Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) who have been wary of impeaching the impeachment were propelled to support this impeachment inquiry. Additionally, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), acknowledging this marked change in her caucus despite being hesitant prior, has endorsed an impeachment inquiry.

Many in the White House have acknowledged that this impeachment threat is the greatest threat to Trump’s presidency. The public and congressional pressure led the White House to release a rough transcript of the call and a copy of the whistleblower report. The information present on these documents are considered more serious that what was previously reported and indicate that the White House had hidden the phone call transcript by putting it under secure national security material.

Many Republicans were quick to come to the President’s defense by discrediting the whistleblower as using hearsay to support the vast majority of his or her argument. However, many were troubled by the allegations and say they support greater investigation into these pressing allegations. However, this report has raised greater scrutiny about the content of other phone calls the president has had with other world leaders such as with Saudi Arabia and Russia. As the impeachment investigations continue, it will be crucial to examine public opinion in support of impeachment and the severity of the president’s actions.

Attack on Saudi Oil Operations Leads to Market Turmoil

http://www.qz.com

On Saturday, 10 drones controlled by the Iranian backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched targeted attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil operations. These attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure disabled half of the country’s oil production or about 5% of the global supply. Saudi Arabia is one of the largest exporters of crude oil in the world and this attack will raise oil prices as market watchers fear that these attacks will destabilize the oil supply in an already precarious region.

After markets in Asia opened up Monday morning, the price of Brent crude skyrocketed double digits as many fear a prolonged impact of the global oil supply. This steep rise in prices may hamper down already slow global economic growth that is struggling with restrictions from the US-China trade war. The Trump administration has already blamed Iran for the attacks and may further exacerbate tensions between the hostile countries. Additionally, President Trump has announced that he will release some oil from the Strategic Oil Reserves in order to stabilize the global oil market.

While this attacks may have short-term implications in the oil market, this attack will heighten geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Iran already are adversaries, and if evidence comes to light that Iran participated in the planning of these attacks, the attack could spark a new Middle East conflict between the countries. Overall, this attack on Saudi oil operations is a threat to global stability and will have an enduring impact on the oil market for weeks to come.

Trump’s Tariff War Heats Up

http://www.bloomberg.com

After Trump announced additional tariffs on hundreds of billions of goods imported from China, it became increasingly clear that the trade war between China and the United States had no end in the foreseeable future. While trade talks have continued between the two nations, negotiations have all but broken down as each country has dug in on its demands. The trade war has affected business operations and supply chains in both countries as companies have struggled to navigate the new restrictions and financial penalties on their goods.

Many market watchers have warned that the trade war is slowing down both the global economy as well as the United States economy. While the economy still seems far from a recession, it has significantly slowed from 2018 and manufacturing output has declined. Many farmers throughout the American heartland have large stockpiles of crops that Chinese buyers are no longer purchasing. However, the economic impact is not limited to the United States; the Chinese economy seems to be struggling and is growing at the lowest rate in decades. Many companies are pulling their supply chains out of China and into neighboring countries like Vietnam.

The political impact is starting to accumulate as many voters’ opinion of President Trump’s handling of the economy sours. Many crucial states in the Midwest which were essential for President Trump’s 2016 victory are facing hardships from the trade disputes. There are some who believe that President Xi Jinping of China is trying to target politically important constituencies to force Trump to back off or help elect a new president in 2020. China is not a democracy, so it is not accountable to political pressures that may result from a slowing economy. As the 2020 election approaches, it will be necessary to pay close attention to the growing trade war and its impact on the American economy.

Gun Control Comes to the Supreme Court

http://www.theatlantic.com

After multiple mass shootings across the country, gun policy has again the focal public policy issue across the country. These shootings have increased the enthusiasm of gun control activists and their hopes of implementing new restrictions on firearms. However, gun rights enthusiasts are hoping that a newly emboldened conservative Supreme Court with the addition of Justice Brett Kavanaugh will prevent restrictions that they believe infringe upon the Second Amendment.

This upcoming term, the Supreme Court has taken up the first second amendment case in a decade. The Court will hear New York Rifle & Pistol Association v. City of New York where New York City gun owners have launched a challenge to a law that prevents gun owners from transporting their firearms. However, the City of New York, fearing an expansive gun rights decision, has tried to declare the case moot by removing the policy.

While the Supreme Court will decide whether the case is a live controversy in October, there are multiple second amendment cases pending on a variety of issues from concealed carry permits to magazine restrictions. The Supreme Court is being pressured to clarify their 2008 landmark decision DC v. Heller which established the constitutional right to own a gun for self-defense.

Gun rights activists are hoping the Supreme Court adopts the strict scrutiny standard for evaluating gun control legislation. However, gun control advocates fear that this standard will make the majority of proposed gun restrictions unconstitutional. Many court watchers are looking to Chief Justice John Roberts who as the swing vote can determine the future of gun policy in the United States. Any future decision will have an enormous impact on the 2020 election and the gun debate for the upcoming decades.

Massive Budget Deal Passes Congress

http://www.newsweek.com

This week Congress passed a massive budget deal that would greatly increase both military and domestic discretionary spending. This two year budget deal provides more than $2.7 trillion in discretionary spending over the next two years and raises raises the debt ceiling until 2021 after the 2020 elections. The deal was an outright rejection of the 2011 Budget Control Act, passed with support from the tea party movement, which placed strict caps on both domestic and military discretionary spending. The deal sets spending at about $324 billion above the spending caps in the 2011 law. Additionally, the deal includes $77 billion in cuts to mandatory spending programs as offsets.

The deal was heavily supported by Democrats who were eager to end the threat of sequestration which in their view prevented the government from investing in important domestic priorities. Some Republicans and President Trump backed the deal due to the large increase in military spending which they believe is necessary for military readiness. However, many conservative Republicans who ran multiple campaigns on the issue of fiscal responsibility and the need to cut spending lambasted the deal, saying it needlessly increases the debt and goes back on their promises to voters.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) heavily criticized Republicans who supported the deal and pondered that the deal signaled the end of the Tea Party. Sen. Paul proposed an amendment that would cap spending at low levels and pass a balanced budget amendment, but it was rejected by the Senate. The House of Representatives passed the deals by a vote of 284-149, buoyed mostly by support of Democrats and Republican defense hawks. The Senate passed the measure by a vote of 67-28 with most of the opposition from Republicans upset about the cost. Washington seems unconcerned about the deficit and continues on a path to fiscal unsustainability.