Shutdown Showdown

http://www.abcnews.go.com

For the last 19 days, Democrats and President Trump have been locked in a tense showdown over reopening the government. Despite initially throwing his support for a series of bills to reopen the government, President Trump changed his mind and decided that he would shut down the federal government if her did not get money for his promised border wall. There have been tense negotiations but neither side looks like they are willing toccata, leaving hundreds of thousands of federal workers without pay in limbo.

The week before the Congress winter recess the Senate passed a series of bills to fund the government that the President initially pledged to support. However, after many Senators left town, the President announced that he would not support a funding bill without money for the wall, hindering the ability to pass the bills in the House. Republicans tried to pass a funding bill with wall money which was also defeated. With no solution, Congress left Washington only to postpone their issues for a few weeks.

The last week Republicans and Democrats have repeatedly failed to come up with a solution to fund the government. Speaker Pelosi has said that she will never allocate funds for a border wall while the President will not support a bill without funding for a physical barrier on the southern border. In an attempt to increase public support for the wall, President Trump delivered a public address laying out his reasoning for building a wall of the Mexican border to stop illegal immigration. Democratic leaders Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer delivered a response, reiterating their position that no negotiations over border security shall begin until the government is reopened.

Frustrated by the lack of progress, President Trump has contemplated declaring a national emergency and redirecting money from the military to build the wall. Many legal experts doubt that this plan will past muster in the courts, but it is viewed by many as the best political option for Trump because he can appear like he is fighting to keep his promise while reopening the government. However, expansion of executive power is similar to those of President Obama Republicans criticized and decried as weakening the separation of powers. With no resolution in sight, the country anxiously waits for the government to reopen and provide certainty to their everyday lives.

Justice Anthony Kennedy Retires

http://www.time.com

On the last day of the Supreme Court term, Justice Anthony Kennedy in a surprising announcement wrote a letter to President Trump detailing his intent to retire after 30 years on the court. Over his tenure, Justice Kennedy has played the role of the “swing justice” joining both the conservative and liberal wings of the court for important decisions. He was viewed as a moderately conservative judge who ruled conservatively on business issues, the 1st amendment, and federalism but sided with liberals on social issues like abortion and gay rights. Some of the most impactful decisions of the last decade such as Citizens United which struck down campaign finance laws and Obergefell which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide.

His retirement ignited a heated political battle over the future of the Supreme Court. President Donald Trump has the opportunity to appoint a strict originalist judge to the court and significantly move the court to the right. However, Democrats in the Senate are dedicated to do everything in their power to block his nominee. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has already stated that the Senate should not consider a nominee until after the midterm elections. Despite their opposition, Democrats have little power to block a confirmation if Republicans stay united because during the confirmation of Justice Neil Gorsuch, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell killed the filibuster on Supreme Court nominees.

The Republicans most vulnerable to defecting are Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Both are the most moderate in the Senate Republican Caucus and both are pro-choice. Both have signaled that they would like a centrist nominee and a justice that would maintain Roe v. Wade. On the Democratic side, Republicans are targeting Senators like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) who are running for reelection in states that President Trump won by double digits and voted for Justice Gorsuch last year.

In searching for a nominee, President Trump is sticking with the list of 25 potential nominees developed by the Heritage Foundation and the Federalist Society that he touted on the campaign. A shortlist of five candidates has emerged and include Judge Brett Kavanaugh on the DC Circuit, Judge Amy Coney Barrett on the 7th Circuit, Judge Amul Thapar on the 6th Circuit, Judge Thomas Hardiman on the 3rd Circuit, and Judge Raymond Kethledge on 6th Circuit. Many of these candidates were Supreme Court clerks and have a potential to serve on the Supreme Court for decades due to their young age. Any of these candidates have the potential to influence the future of the country for years to come.

Despite Pleas from the International Community, Trump Pulls out of Iran Deal

http://www.pbs.com

Last week, President Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Deal in a fulfillment of one of his core campaign compromises. The deal, considered one of the landmark achievements of the Obama Administration, has been continuously criticized by Republicans in Congress and during the 2016 campaign by then candidate Donald Trump. Despite the pleas of US allies such as France and Germany, the Trump administration decided to pull the United States out of the agreement because in the President’s view, the deal is not strict enough on controlling Iran’s nuclear ambitions and does not touch other worrying actions of Iran such as its support of terrorist groups and its ballistic missile program. President Trump has the support of President Netanyahu of Israel who claims to possess evidence that Iran lied to the international community prior to the formation of the deal and views Iran as a threat to Israel’s existence. President Trump hopes to rally the international community to make a new stricter nuclear deal with Iran that he would consider acceptable.

Democrats and some Republicans in Congress have expressed concern that withdrawal from the deal will allow Iran to again begin to enrich uranium and pave the way for a creation of nuclear weapons destabilizing the Middle East region by creating a nuclear arms race. Adversaries of Iran in the Middle East such as Israel and Saudi Arabia have pledged to expand or create nuclear weapons programmes to counter the threat of Iranian power. Democrats in particular view the withdrawal as dangerous to world peace and just another example of President Trump dismantling former President Obama’s legacy. Senate Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) both previously opposed the passage of the Iran Nuclear Deal in the US Senate in 2015 but now criticize the withdrawal because they say while the deal is not perfect, it must be kept in place in order to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons in Iran. Critics of President Trump’s action say that the withdrawal hurts the world’s perception and trust of America’s word.

The withdrawal is furthering tensions with European allies who are already upset with Donald Trump over the imposition of tariffs on their steel production. By reneging on the deal, the United States can once again place sanctions on businesses that deal with Iran. Many of these companies in danger of imposed sanctions include German car maker Volkswagen and French energy giant Total who have recently entered contracts with the Iranian government after the Nuclear Deal allowed financial transactions to be resumed with Iran.  

America’s withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal presents a risk for the Trump administration because this decision can create unforeseen possibilities about the future. The White House does not know precisely how Iran will respond to the economic pressure it will endure from US sanctions or how the deal’s end affects the future of cooperation between Europe and the United States on pressing international issues. President Trump is taking a gamble in foreign affairs in exchange for political gain. While his decision can end up successful by pressuring the international community to pursue a stronger deal, it poses additional risks that can result in further conflict in the Middle East or a collapse in similar nuclear negotiations with North Korea. However regardless of the outcome, President Trump is charting America and the global community on a path toward uncertainty.

Shutdown Blame Game

http://www.vice.com

Last Friday Democrats and Republicans in the Senate failed to pass a Continuing Resolution to fund the government. Earlier that week, the House of Representatives passed a bill that would fund the government for four weeks, fund the CHIP or Children’s Health Insurance Program for 6 years, and delay 3 Obamacare taxes such as the Cadillac tax, the Health Insurance Tax, and the Medical Device Tax. The bill however faced stiff resistance from both Republican and Democratic Senators. Specifically, Democrats insisted on attaching a bill to resolve the DACA issue or come up with an agreement. DACA is the program that gives legalization status and work permits to illegal immigrants who were brought to the United States as children. This issue has broad support among all Americans but Republicans want it paired with additional immigration reforms.

Even though 5 Democrats voted for the bill, 4 Republicans defected leading the bill to miss the 60 votes needed for passage. As the minutes ticked down on Friday night until the government ran out of money, lawmakers negotiated on the Senate to come to a solution but ultimately failed. Even before the shutdown, Democrats and Republicans started to set up the blame game against each other. Republicans launched a messaging campaign labelling the shutdown as a #SchumerShutdown while Democrat labeled it as a #TrumpShutdown. Both sides felt the other party would eventually be blamed for the shutdown. On Saturday, each party sticking to their guns on the shutdown and few negotiations were happening to resolve the shutdown.

However, a group of about 20 centrist senators began meeting to resolve the shutdown. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promised to have a week of immigration debate if no deal is reached by February 8th and in return Democrats helped pass a Continuing Resolution. Many in media and politics viewed this agreement as Democrats giving in to the Republicans and Republicans having won this fight. Many progressive Democrats including many who are considering running for president in 2020 expressed frustration over Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s negotiation ability and the inaction to protect the Dreamers. Overall, this shutdown highlighted the political divisions and ineffectiveness in Washington that angers many people across the nation

Trump’s Cabinet Hearings

http://www.powerlineblog.com

This week the newly sworn in US Senate of the 115th Congress will start to have hearings for many of Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees. Even though many of his appointments are controversial with some within the Democratic Party, they are all likely to pass because  in 2013 Harry Reid and the Democrats took away the 60 vote filibuster for presidential cabinet and judicial nominees excluding the Supreme Court. After the 2016 elections, the Republicans retained their majority in the Senate which will allow somewhat easy confirmations for these nominees.

Democrats have raised concerns that these hearings are too short and that there are too many in one day. They have also said that many nominees have failed to provide the ethics office with their questionnaires as well as financial disclosures because of the great wealth of many of the nominees. Republicans instead point to 2008 where the Senate worked quickly on then president-elect Barack Obama’s appointments. On his inauguration day, as many as 7 nominees were confirmed by the Democratic controlled Senate. Democratic Senate leaders like Chuck Schumer (D-NY) are threatening to drag out the confirmation process through spring.

On January 10, the Judiciary committee will start a 2 day hearing on Attorney General nominee Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL). In addition on January 10, Homeland Security Nominee Retired Gen. John Kelly will have a hearing. On January 11, there will be hearings for Sen. Jeff Sessions (Day 2), Transportation Secretary Nominee Elaine Chao, Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Education nominee Betsy DeVos, and CIA director nominee Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-KS). On January 12, there will be hearings for Secretary of Defense nominee Retired Gen. James Mattis, Commerce secretary nominee Wilbur Ross, and Housing and Urban Development nominee Ben Carson. Senate Republican leaders are looking to quickly go through with these hearings so they can go on to carry out their conservative agenda.