The GOP Senate Pushes Ahead with Reshaping the Federal Judiciary

http://www.politico.com

After gaining two seats in the 2018 elections, the Senate GOP has returned to confirming conservative nominees appointed by President Trump to important positions in the nation’s appellate courts. This week the Senate churned through nominees and confirmed four justices to the appellate courts. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has already teed up additional votes next week by filing cloture on two more nominees. Many of these justices have well established conservative bona fides including strong ties to the Federalist Society, a powerful conservative legal association. Faced with a divided Congress, Republicans believe that the best way they can enact their conservative agenda is by transforming the nation’s judiciary.

The four judges confirmed this week include Eric Miller, Allison Jones Rushing, Chad Readler, and Eric Murphy. All the judges have stellar resumes, graduated from the nation’s top law schools, and have high level clerking experience at the appellate or Supreme Court level. However, Democrats have pushed back on many of these nominees, saying that they lack sufficient legal experience, and in particular criticized Allison Jones Rushing for her young age of 37. Democrats have also pushed back on Chad Readler who played a central role in the lawsuit challenging Obamacare’s constitutionality.

Legal conservatives championed President Trump’s appointment of Neomi Rao to the DC Circuit because they believe that she will take on the administrative state over which the DC Circuit has significant jurisdiction. However, many Republicans in the Senate have expressed concerns over Rao’s personal views on abortion as well as controversial opinion articles about sexual assault she had written during college. To keep these wary Senators in check, the Judicial Crisis Network announced ad buys in the states of Senators with concerns about her nomination.

While President Trump has made many strides in confirming appellate judges, he has struggled to confirm many of his district court nominees in comparison with past presidents. A major contributing factor has been Democratic obstruction and their refusal to confirm many of these noncontroversial nominees by voice vote. As a result, Republican Senators have prepared a rules change that would drastically limit the minimum hours of debate for district court nominees, allowing Republicans to confirm these judges at a faster rate. The future developments in the confirmation battle over nominees to the federal judiciary will have a significant impact on the future of this nation.

Despite Widespread Approval, Bipartisan Criminal Justice Bill Faces Gridlock in the Senate

http://www.brietbart.com

After the November elections, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) made it his priority to pass criminal justice reform during the lame duck session of Congress. The House had already passed the First Step Act which aims to reform the federal prison system and reduce recidivism rates that trap individuals in the criminal justice system. The Senate Judiciary Committee modified the bill by adding sentence reductions for low level drug offenders. The bill has obtained widespread support across the political spectrum particularly among libertarian Democratic and Republicans who have decried the devastating impact of the current criminal justice system on communities of color in the United States.

However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has posed a major roadblock to the passage of the First Step Act by refusing to bring the bill to a floor vote unless it has a majority backing among Senate Republicans. He has been wary of having a vote on a bill that so divides the Republican caucus. Supporters of the bill like Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) have claimed that the bill has well surpassed majority Republican support, but Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) has disputed these assertions. The bill gained a large boost after President Donald Trump announced his support for the legislation on Twitter after aggressively lobbying from his son in law Jared Kushner who has made criminal justice reform his pet issue.

With the time left in the 115th Congress dwindling, supporters have been scrambling to pressure McConnell to put the bill on the floor but have been so far unsuccessful. The latest push has been to include the First Step Act as part of the government funding bill that needs to pass by the end of this month, but some worry that this will imperil the passage of both because libertarians like Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) who support this bill oppose increased government spending while some Senators who might support the spending bill will vote against it due to the criminal justice reform bill attached to it. As the days number down, the country will be looking to Congress to see if they can make progress on a bipartisan issue or remain entrenched in continuous gridlock.

Breaking Down the 2018 Midterm Results

http://www.andalusiastarnews.com

After a long fought campaign season, the 2018 election season came to an end last week when millions of voters across the country came the polls to decide the future of the United States. Polling stations saw record breaking turnout levels, unusual for a midterm election. Before the results were counted, many election forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicted large gains for the Democrats in the House of Representatives and modest gains for the Republicans in the Senate. These predictions turned out to be exactly correct.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats took back control of the House for the first time since 2010 and seem to have gained 38 seats. Democrats throughout the campaign were able to successfully capitalize on their energized base to raise record sums for their candidates. Democrats seized on the shifting political landscape to take many districts particularly in suburban areas that seemed like they would vote for Republicans in perpetuity but are unhappy with President Trump’s leadership style and policies. Many of these districts like NJ 7th, CA 45th, TX 32nd, GA 7th, MN 3rd, and IL 6th have large numbers of white college educated voters who used to be strictly Republican but are quickly moving towards the Democratic party. A record number of the new Democratic representatives are women or persons of color. Additionally, many of the new members of Congress are veterans, a result of Democratic recruiting of individuals with military records to run for office. Some of these congresspersons elect include Mikie Sherrill of NJ-11, a former navy pilot, Kim Schrier of WA-8, a physician, and Antonio Delgado of NY-19, a Rhodes scholar.

In the Senate, Republicans were able to expand their majority by picking off Democrats in states that President Trump won by double digits. Republican candidates Kevin Cramer, Josh Hawley, Mike Braun, and Rick Scott were able to defeat Democratic Senators Heidi Heitcamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, and Bill Nelson of Florida respectively. However, Republicans lost Senate seats in Nevada and Arizona. Democrats were defending over twice as many seats as Republicans including many in vulnerable states. This expansion of Republican seats will allow Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to continue his agenda of confirming judges to the many district and circuit court vacancies in the federal judiciary. Ultimately, it will be interesting to see how the parties interact in divided government, particularly to see how President Trump will respond to greater oversight and investigations of his administration from the Democrats in the House. While the general consensus is that not much will get done in the 116th Congress, the American people can only hope that the parties come together to solve the pressing issues that face this country.

Canceled August Recess

http://www.npr.com

Pressured by many members of his conference, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) decided to cancel the month long August recess. The Senate will use the extra legislative time on confirming Trump appointees including the many appointees to the federal judiciary and passing the appropriation bills for the upcoming fiscal year. Congress has decided to pass the appropriations bills in small groupings of funding bills nicknamed “minibuses” in contrast to the large omnibus bill Congress has used in recent years to fund the federal government.

Many Democrats have viewed the cancelation of the August recess as a tactic to prevent incumbent Democratic Senators from campaigning in their home states. In the upcoming 2018 elections, 10 Democratic Senators are up for reelection in states that President Donald Trump won compared to only one Republican senator, Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV), who is up for reelection in a state Hillary Clinton won. Democrats are not the only ones who are upset about the cancellation of the August recess. Some GOP Senators like Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) have criticized the Majority Leader’s decision because they say the recess is an important time to talk with their constituents back in their states.

Justice Anthony Kennedy Retires

http://www.time.com

On the last day of the Supreme Court term, Justice Anthony Kennedy in a surprising announcement wrote a letter to President Trump detailing his intent to retire after 30 years on the court. Over his tenure, Justice Kennedy has played the role of the “swing justice” joining both the conservative and liberal wings of the court for important decisions. He was viewed as a moderately conservative judge who ruled conservatively on business issues, the 1st amendment, and federalism but sided with liberals on social issues like abortion and gay rights. Some of the most impactful decisions of the last decade such as Citizens United which struck down campaign finance laws and Obergefell which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide.

His retirement ignited a heated political battle over the future of the Supreme Court. President Donald Trump has the opportunity to appoint a strict originalist judge to the court and significantly move the court to the right. However, Democrats in the Senate are dedicated to do everything in their power to block his nominee. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has already stated that the Senate should not consider a nominee until after the midterm elections. Despite their opposition, Democrats have little power to block a confirmation if Republicans stay united because during the confirmation of Justice Neil Gorsuch, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell killed the filibuster on Supreme Court nominees.

The Republicans most vulnerable to defecting are Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Both are the most moderate in the Senate Republican Caucus and both are pro-choice. Both have signaled that they would like a centrist nominee and a justice that would maintain Roe v. Wade. On the Democratic side, Republicans are targeting Senators like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) who are running for reelection in states that President Trump won by double digits and voted for Justice Gorsuch last year.

In searching for a nominee, President Trump is sticking with the list of 25 potential nominees developed by the Heritage Foundation and the Federalist Society that he touted on the campaign. A shortlist of five candidates has emerged and include Judge Brett Kavanaugh on the DC Circuit, Judge Amy Coney Barrett on the 7th Circuit, Judge Amul Thapar on the 6th Circuit, Judge Thomas Hardiman on the 3rd Circuit, and Judge Raymond Kethledge on 6th Circuit. Many of these candidates were Supreme Court clerks and have a potential to serve on the Supreme Court for decades due to their young age. Any of these candidates have the potential to influence the future of the country for years to come.

Shutdown Blame Game

http://www.vice.com

Last Friday Democrats and Republicans in the Senate failed to pass a Continuing Resolution to fund the government. Earlier that week, the House of Representatives passed a bill that would fund the government for four weeks, fund the CHIP or Children’s Health Insurance Program for 6 years, and delay 3 Obamacare taxes such as the Cadillac tax, the Health Insurance Tax, and the Medical Device Tax. The bill however faced stiff resistance from both Republican and Democratic Senators. Specifically, Democrats insisted on attaching a bill to resolve the DACA issue or come up with an agreement. DACA is the program that gives legalization status and work permits to illegal immigrants who were brought to the United States as children. This issue has broad support among all Americans but Republicans want it paired with additional immigration reforms.

Even though 5 Democrats voted for the bill, 4 Republicans defected leading the bill to miss the 60 votes needed for passage. As the minutes ticked down on Friday night until the government ran out of money, lawmakers negotiated on the Senate to come to a solution but ultimately failed. Even before the shutdown, Democrats and Republicans started to set up the blame game against each other. Republicans launched a messaging campaign labelling the shutdown as a #SchumerShutdown while Democrat labeled it as a #TrumpShutdown. Both sides felt the other party would eventually be blamed for the shutdown. On Saturday, each party sticking to their guns on the shutdown and few negotiations were happening to resolve the shutdown.

However, a group of about 20 centrist senators began meeting to resolve the shutdown. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promised to have a week of immigration debate if no deal is reached by February 8th and in return Democrats helped pass a Continuing Resolution. Many in media and politics viewed this agreement as Democrats giving in to the Republicans and Republicans having won this fight. Many progressive Democrats including many who are considering running for president in 2020 expressed frustration over Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s negotiation ability and the inaction to protect the Dreamers. Overall, this shutdown highlighted the political divisions and ineffectiveness in Washington that angers many people across the nation

A Packed Early 2018

http://www.slate.com

After a sweeping tax reform victory in December, Congressional leaders face a packed to do list in the early months of 2018. President Donald Trump, cabinet officials, and Congressional leaders including Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) came to Camp David to plan their strategy in the months to come. First on the list is finding an bipartisan agreement to fund the government passed January 19 to avoid a government shutdown. Democrats have insisted on spending parity between defense and non-defense discretionary spending while Republicans want to just increase defense spending while keeping an eye on the deficit. Additionally, Democrats want to attach a DACA solution to give work permits to undocumented workers who were brought to the United States as children. While there is bipartisan support for finding a solution, there are disagreements in what the solution should be. Republicans are insisting that border security measures be included and that only legal status, not citizenship should be given to the so called Dreamers.

In the latest twist, President Donald Trump has sent Congress a list of hardline immigration measures he would need to support a DACA agreement including funding for a wall on the border with Mexico, ending the visa lottery system, and ending chain migration. Before his requests, negotiators already had trouble coming to an agreement with some Republicans lambasting Democrats as not willing to negotiate anything on border security. Furthermore, Congress must extend CHIP the program that provides health insurance to poor children and extend Section 702 which allows surveillance of Americans by spy agencies. Many libertarian minded Democrats and Republicans like Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) have called for an overhaul of this program to protect the privacy of citizens. Finally, Congress must raise the debt ceiling which many conservatives say must be accompanied with reforms to reduce spending to address the debt.

The GOP has appeared divided on their next agenda issue they wish to pursue in 2018. Senate Republicans and President Trump are inclined to work on infrastructure in a bipartisan faction with a hope of investing $1 trillion in a combination of public and private dollars. The administration is poised to release a comprehensive document laying out their policy preferences on this topic in the coming weeks. However, some Republicans, especially in the House, are wary about spending hundreds of billions of dollars when the budget deficit is very large and the GOP just passed $1.5 trillion in tax cuts.

Others like Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) wish to embark on welfare reform by combining and streamlining different programs to create incentives to work, help people escape poverty, and cut the deficit. However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) expressed concern of passing another partisan bill and hurting chances in the 2018 midterms in what will already be a tough race. Finally, some Republicans want to return to repealing Obamacare which seems even more precarious since the majority in the Senate is down to 51-49. Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) want to resurrect their bill to turn health care policy to the states through block grants. Clearly, the first months of the year will be full of political drama from Washington.

The Passage of Tax Reform

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com

At Midday Wednesday, December 20th Congress passed tax reform, passing the biggest legislative achievement of the year. This was a big win for President Donald Trump and Congressional leaders Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). The Tax Reform and Jobs Act is the largest reform of the tax code since Ronald Reagan’s tax reform in 1986, 31 years ago. This is a large victory for the GOP including Senate Finance Committee chairman Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and House Ways and Means Chairman Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) who have been trying to pass tax reform for the past 17 years.

The Senate and House bills were merged in a Conference Committee last week. On Tuesday, the new bill passed the House of Representatives by a margin of 227-203 with no Democratic votes for it. A handful of Republicans, all from high tax states like New Jersey, California, and New York, voted against the bill. Just after midnight on Wednesday morning, the Senate voted for the bill with a margin of 51-48 with all Republicans voting for the bill and all Democrats voting against it. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) had to return home and missed the vote due to side effects from his cancer treatments. In a surprise change, deficit hawk Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) changed his vote to yes after voting no on the Senate version.

Using static scoring, the bill provides a tax cut of just under $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years or around 3% of projected revenue. The bill lowers the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and gives pass through businesses a 20% deduction of revenue. On the individual side, the plan lowers rates at each level, doubles the standard deduction, and increases the child tax credit to $2000 with a refundable portion of $1400. However, the bill caps the state and local tax deduction at $10,000 and limits the home mortgage deduction on loans up to $750,000.

Republicans argue that the bill will increase wages and economic growth through business investment in the American economy. However, Democrats say that the plan is merely a give out to the wealthy and corporations. Republicans and Democrats have used conflicting statistics to back up their arguments. Democrats have drawn upon the fact that individual tax cuts expire in 2025 and a lack of studies showing the plan paying for itself while Republicans have seized upon the fact that more than 80% of Americans will have a tax cut next year and the new investments and pay raises corporations have enacted due to the passage of tax reform. Both sides say the bill helps them politically, but the 2018 midterms will allow voters to decide their opinions of this newly passed bill.

A Tossup in Alabama with the GOP Agenda at Stake

http://www.telzilla.com

Tomorrow, the entire nation will be watching the highly contested and competitive Alabama special election between Roy Moore (R) and Doug Jones (D). The election is being held to replace the seat former Alabama senator and current Attorney General Jeff Sessions. His replacement appointed by former Alabama governor Robert Bentley (R) Luther Strange lost to Roy Moore in a surprising runoff defeat. Strange was supported by President Trump along with the vast majority of the Republican senators.

Roy Moore ran as a very social conservative was previously a member of the Alabama Supreme Court. In that position, Moore has created controversy by refusing to take down a monument to the 10 commandments after a court order and instructing judges in Alabama not to issue same-sex marriage licenses after the Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage. Additionally, Moore has made controversial comments saying that Muslims should not be allowed to serve in Congress, homosexuality should be illegal, and that all amendments to the Constitution after the 10th should be repealed. Roy Moore has been backed by Steve Bannon and has run an anti-establishment campaign specifically targeting Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

Because of Moore’s controversies, Doug Jones, a former prosecutor, had made the race more competitive than a race would be in deep red Alabama. However, recently a groundbreaking Washington Post story was published detailing the accounts of several women who said they were sexually harassed or assaulted by Moore when they were teenagers and Moore was a District Attorney in his 30s. Additionally, other reports have come out that Moore was banned from going to the local mall because of his predatory behavior towards teenage girls. This development initially gave Doug Jones a small lead in the race as many many college educated suburban white Republicans increased their support for Doug Jones. However, as of now, the recent polls have shown Roy Moore with a slight lead in the polls. This lead can be attributed to the many sexual harassment scandals across the country that have normalized Moore’s actions as well as President Donald Trump’s recent support for Moore and his campaigning for him. After these allegations came out, millions of dollars came to support Jones’s campaign as well as support of national Democrats such as Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and former President Barack Obama.

The outcome of this race will have a drastic effect on the ability of the Republican Congress to pass their agenda items in 2018. With a slim 52 seat majority in the Senate, the Republicans cannot afford to lose any more senators of they will have even more trouble passing legislation like an Obamacare repeal, an infrastructure bill, or welfare reform. However, Republicans are wary of having Roy Moore attached to their national brand in the upcoming 2018 elections. For example, Sen. Richard Selby (R-AL) has publicly stated that he will not support Moore in the election and Sen. Jeff Flake wrote a check to Doug Jones’s campaign. Either way, the outcome of this election will be another problem for the Republican party.

Starting the Tax Reform Debate

http://www.nrcc.org

On Wednesday September 26th, Republicans from the White House, House, and Senate unveiled a blueprint for a tax reform plan negotiated between a group known as the Big Six.  This group consists of House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX), Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Finance Committee Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and NEC Director Gary Cohn. The plan they create is a broad outline of the plan they would like to achieve. The plan includes lowering the corporate tax rate to 20%, immediate expensing for at least 5 years, and creating a territorial tax system on the business side while doubling the standard deduction, combining the 7 brackets into 3 brackets, and increasing the child tax credit on the individual side. The goal of the reform effort is to boost economic growth to 3% and make the tax code much simpler and fairer.

The blueprint leaves open what payfors will be included but does state the Big 6’s intention to remove the state and local tax deduction for individuals and limit the interest deduction for businesses. This is crucial because according to the budget deal played out by the Senate, the plan cannot increase the debt by over $1.5 trillion. In removing loopholes and deductions in the tax code, Republican leaders will have to fight an army of lobbyists and special interest groups each vying for their prized part of the tax code they will want to keep. For example, Republicans from high tax states like New York and New New Jersey are already balking at the removal of the state and local tax deduction which disproportionately benefits their districts. However, the Freedom Caucus who proved to be a problem for leadership in the House during the healthcare effort have endorsed the framework in a boost for leadership.

Nevertheless, problems seem to be brewing for the tax reform effort in the Senate. Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) says he will not vote for any tax bill that increases the debt after reasonable growth projections. Other senators like Rand Paul (R-KY) and Ted Cruz (R-TX) insist on having a tax cut for every American which runs counter to the position of deficit hawks. Meanwhile, Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Mike Lee (R-UT) have pushed for a doubling of the child tax credit. Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) says this money is better used in ways that boost economic growth. Leaders are also concerned that Senators Susan Collins (R-ME), John McCain (R-AZ), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) could propose a problem by only supporting a plan that has bipartisan support. Republicans have to conquer internal bickering while fighting the Democratic narrative that their plan is a handout to the rich and large corporations while putting the country’s financial stability at risk. The next month will be crucial as the House develops the actual bill and will have to pass it out of the chamber.