On Friday, the November Jobs Report was released and surprisingly included excellent numbers about the state of the American economy. The report laid out how employers added 266,000 jobs in November bringing the unemployment rate to the 50 year low of 3.5%. Additionally, wage growth clocked in at 3.1% with wages for lower income groups growing faster than those for higher income groups.
This jobs report is a potential boon for President Donald Trump’s reelection chances in 2020 if the economy continues growing at a fast pace. As the president’s agenda has been otherwise stalled and his administration has faced scrutiny from impeachment investigations, he has tried to tout the strong economy to voters as the principal reason to reelect him. Many analysts have pointed to Bill Clinton’s reelection which was buoyed by the booming ’90’s economy despite his numerous scandals.
However, many leading Democratic challengers have tried to poke holes in President Trump’s arguments about the strength of the US economy. Democrats point out the issue of income inequality and corporate excesses that they say harm average Americans. As the election approaches, it is necessary to pay attention to the strength of the economy, for it will be at the top of minds of millions of voters as the head into ballot boxes this upcoming November.
After Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry into potential wrongdoing by President Trump in the withholding of military aid to Ukraine, Democratic investigations have quickly ramped up after hearing from key witnesses involved in the scandal. Testimony from officials such as the former ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor and ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland have implicated the president in a quid pro quo where military aid for Ukraine was tied to opening investigations into the DNC and Hunter Biden, the son of his potential rival Joe Biden.
These revelations have bolstered criticisms of President Trump by Democrats in Congress and have created a framework for a potential impeachment after the conclusion of the investigations. Democrats believe that the president’s use of the power of his office to find dirt on his opponents violates federal law and is a threat to the American democratic system. They believe that the steady flow of incriminating evidence and testimony is slowly changing public opinion in favor of impeachment.
Republicans, however, have been quick to defend the President. While some have found it difficult to defend the president on the core allegations, stalwart defenders of President Trump in the House of Representatives have been quick to attack the process of the impeachment inquiry. They argue that an official vote should be taken in the House like the two previous impeachment investigations to provide the president fair due process and allow Republicans to have subpoena power. A group of House Republicans stormed a closed door, classified hearing from one witness to protest the process which they believe does not allow input of Republican voices.
President Trump has become frustrated by what he views as a weak response to the impeachment inquiry. However, Democrats have become determined to continue investigating and revealing potentially damning information that could establish a clear quid pro quo implicating the president. While it seems likely that the House is set for impeaching the president, it remains unclear if Republican Senators will turn on the president and convict him.
After Trump announced additional tariffs on hundreds of billions of goods imported from China, it became increasingly clear that the trade war between China and the United States had no end in the foreseeable future. While trade talks have continued between the two nations, negotiations have all but broken down as each country has dug in on its demands. The trade war has affected business operations and supply chains in both countries as companies have struggled to navigate the new restrictions and financial penalties on their goods.
Many market watchers have warned that the trade war is slowing down both the global economy as well as the United States economy. While the economy still seems far from a recession, it has significantly slowed from 2018 and manufacturing output has declined. Many farmers throughout the American heartland have large stockpiles of crops that Chinese buyers are no longer purchasing. However, the economic impact is not limited to the United States; the Chinese economy seems to be struggling and is growing at the lowest rate in decades. Many companies are pulling their supply chains out of China and into neighboring countries like Vietnam.
The political impact is starting to accumulate as many voters’ opinion of President Trump’s handling of the economy sours. Many crucial states in the Midwest which were essential for President Trump’s 2016 victory are facing hardships from the trade disputes. There are some who believe that President Xi Jinping of China is trying to target politically important constituencies to force Trump to back off or help elect a new president in 2020. China is not a democracy, so it is not accountable to political pressures that may result from a slowing economy. As the 2020 election approaches, it will be necessary to pay close attention to the growing trade war and its impact on the American economy.
As the Affordable Care Act, former President Barack Obama’s controversial landmark achievement, reaches ten years of age, it cannot escape numerous legal challenges that have threatened its existence. This health care law also known as Obamacare has narrowly been upheld in two Supreme Court cases. The most notable was the case NFIB v. Sebelius which was decided in a 5-4 decision. The plaintiffs in the case argued that the individual mandate section of the law which requires all Americans to buy health insurance or face a fine was unconstitutional because it exceeded Congress’s power under the interstate commerce clause.
However, in a surprise decision Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the court’s liberals, declaring that the individual mandate is within Congress’s power because it is merely a tax. Roberts’s narrow decision is being used in a new lawsuit Texas v. Azar which is making its way through federal courts. A coalition of Republican controlled states led by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing the federal government, saying that Obamacare is unconstitutional.
These states argue that when Congress zeroed the fine of the individual mandate in the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017, the individual mandate could no longer be constitutional. Because the individual mandate is unconstitutional, the entire law must be declared unconstitutional. In a surprise move, the Justice Department refused to defend the law and agreed with the states that large portions of Obamacare are unconstitutional. A coalition formed by the House of Representatives as well as Democratic controlled states like California rushed to defend the law from this legal challenge.
In the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas, Judge Reed O’Connor agreed with Texas and its coalition of states; he declared that because the individual mandate is now unconstitutional, the entirety of the Affordable Care Act is also unconstitutional. However, his decision would not become effective pending an appeal to the 5th Circuit of Appeals.
The case finally has had a hearing before a three judge panel of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. The three judges were Judge Jennifer Walker Elrod, a George Bush appointee, Judge Carolyn Dineen King, a Jimmy Carter appointee, and Judge Kurt Engelhardt, a Donald Trump apointee. The two Republican appointed judges immediately seemed critical of the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act. Judge Elrod followed the logic of Judge O’Connor, the district court judge, and Judge Engelhardt was skeptical of the House of Representatives’s standing in the case. Judge King did not ask any questions.
Democrats and supporters of Obamacare became worried by the skepticism of the Judges to their arguments and many court observers believe that the 5th Circuit is poised to either declare Obamacare unconstitutional or say that those appealing have no standing to do so. Republicans in Congress, while critical of the law, have not created any health care plans that could be implemented if the court declares the law unconstitutional and would rather not return to the issue that deeply fractured their party in 2017.
The country is anxiously waiting for the decision from the 5th Circuit which will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the lives of millions of Americans. If the law is declared unconstitutional, health care will become an even more prominent issue before the 2020 elections and the Supreme Court will be forced to weigh in again on the constitutionality of the health care law once again.
Over the course of two days, 20 Democratic candidates had the opportunity to directly communicate their campaign messages to the American people in the first primetime debates of the Democratic primary. Each night displayed 10 candidates who answered important questions from NBC News, MSNBC, and Telemundo journalists who served as the debate moderators.
The first night of debates remained primarily civil and allowed viewers to hear each of the candidates in-depth policy positions. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro (D-TX) both emerged as the strongest candidates on the debate stage and were widely viewed as the winner of the debate. In contrast, candidate and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) seemed to fall short after answering debate questions in broken Spanish. Voters also were able to hear from some of the lesser known candidates such as former Rep. John Delaney (D-MD) and Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI).
The course of the second debate quickly differed from the first night. Candidates tried to make clear distinctions between the policy positions of each other to try to differentiate themselves in the eyes of the public. Congressman Eric Swallwell (D-CA) criticized the age of candidates like former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) and Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) and urged the older generation to “pass the torch.” Other candidates such as Vice President Biden emphasized their experience and ability to “get things done.” The most significant exchange however was between Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Vice President Biden where Senator Harris called out Biden’s comments praising segregationist Senators and his historical opposintion to busing as a method of desegregating public schools. Harris’s strong attack established her as the clear winner of the debate while Biden’s fumbling responses to these attacks hurt his image as a polished statesman.
In recent CNN and Quinnipiac polls, it is clear that the debates had a significant impact of the standing of the different candidates within the Democratic primary electorate. The polls show that Senators Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris had large increases in their support while Biden, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and O’Rourke all decreased in support. All qualifying candidates will have the opportunity to have another chance to present their message at the next debates this upcoming September.
It is more than a year and a half away from the 2020 presidential election, but the Democratic presidential primary race has quickly sprung on the American people. Dozens of Democrats have thrown their hats into the ring, hoping to gain the chance to run against the presumed Republican nominee President Donald Trump in the general election. These candidates range from former Vice President Joe Biden, who is expected to enter the race Thursday, and former presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) to Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) and former mayor of South Bend, Indiana Pete Buttigieg (D-IN). The Democratic Party and their voters are confident after their gains in the 2018 midterms that they can retake the presidency in 2020.
While there are a wide array of candidate, many such as former HUD secretary Julián Castro and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) are relatively unknown and are struggling to gain publicity and make a name for themselves in the crowded primary. However, some such as Pete Buttigieg have gained widespread media publicity due to strong performances on televised town halls with voters. Other frontrunners include Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) , Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (TX).
A growing issue and point of differentiation between the candidates is how far left the platforms of each candidate is. Some such as Sens. Sanders and Warren are running to the left and are pushing progressive proposals such as Medicare for All, student loan forgiveness, and a federal jobs guarantee. Sen. Sanders is a self-proclaimed “democratic socialist,” and Sen. Warren has been a leader in pushing detailed liberal policy proposals such as a wealth tax. The efforts of these candidates have put pressure on others to move left with them and endorse many of the same policy proposals.
Other candidates such as Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Joe Biden have taken another approach. They have tried to distinguish themselves by portraying themselves as the moderate Democrat who is willing to compromise to get things done. These candidates are trying to attract the moderate voters in the party who are turned off by the more extreme proposals from the more liberal candidates.
A key metric in tracking the status of the campaigns is their fundraising. Many candidates have pulled in millions of dollars in the last quarter, mostly from small donors. However, the Trump campaign and the RNC also has raised tens millions of dollars and will be able to take advantage of the absence of primary challenger to rake up fundraising while the Democrats battle it out in the primary. Many campaigns have started to establish a groundwork in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada to help create grassroots support for their candidates. The DNC has already scheduled the first debates for June, and the country will be watching to see how the Democratic primary race progresses.
After a two year long investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election, Special Counsel Robert Mueller has finally wrapped up his investigation and submitted his report to Attorney General William Barr. Attorney General Barr released Mueller’s principal findings from the report. In a letter to chairmen of key committees in Congress, Barr states that the Mueller did not uncover a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russians trying to influence the result of the election. However, on the issue of obstruction of justice regarding President Trump’s conduct towards the investigation, Mueller did not make a judgement either way, leaving it up to Attorney General William Barr and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to decide there was not sufficient evidence indict the President on this charge.
President Trump quickly took a victory lap in what he viewed as a major win and a validation of his longstanding claims that there was no collusion between his presidential campaign and the Russian government. Despite Attorney General Barr’s initial summary, many congressional Democrats remained defiant in their criticism of President Trump with Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, reaffirming his stance that there was evidence of the Trump campaign colluding with the Russians. This defiant stance has initiated Republicans on the Intelligence Committee to call for Rep. Schiff’s resignation from the committee chair.
Democrats have launched a media campaign, trying to portray Attorney General as a partisan who has shown a hostility towards the Mueller investigation. They have called on him to release the full report with minimal redaction, hinting that anything less would be a “coverup.” House Judiciary Chairman Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) has issued a subpoena for the Mueller report if it was not released by the arbitrary deadline of April 2nd. All of Washington and the country is now engaged in a waiting game until Attorney General Barr released the full report with necessary redactions of grand jury and classified national security information which is expected by mid-April.
After a year and a half in office, President Trump finally met Russian President Vladimir Putin for a meeting in Helinski, Finland. Many pressing issues lay before the leaders such as the Syrian Civil War, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Russian meddling in the US elections. The meeting followed President Trump’s trip through Europe to the NATO Summit in Brussels and a visit to the United Kingdom. Trump had criticized many of America’s allies for their minuscule defense spending and trade policies. He even called the European Union a “foe.”
However, this attitude and strong posture was unmatched when President Trump emerged from the Putin meeting for a press conference. He accepted Putin’s denial of election meddling and failed to air American grievances over Russia’s actions in Ukraine or Syria. President Trump openly criticized the United States and undermined America’s standing on the world stage next to one of the country’s biggest adversaries.
Trump’s long standing position supportive of better relations between the US and Russia and denial of election meddling has long confused political observers. This position has constantly raised suspicion that the president colluded with Russia in order to help win the 2016 presidential election. Currently, Special Counsel Robert Muller is investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election and has been on the receiving side of much criticism from President Trump. Overall, this odd meeting has raised further questions about President Trump’s fitness to lead and stand strong on the world stage.
This morning in a surprise tweet President Donald Trump announced that he was firing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and replacing him with CIA Director and former Representative from Kansas’s 4th congressional district Mike Pompeo. While this decision was unexpected, it was not completely unforeseen due to a New York Times article released in December describing a possible plan to replace Secretary Tillerson with the CIA Director. Tillerson had previously had conflicts with career diplomats at the State Department who disliked his leadership style and lack of emphasis on diplomacy which the department had previously focused on. Secretary Tillerson and President trump have had their fair share of arguments throughout the year due to Trump’s disruptive leadership style and emphasis on an America First agenda compared to Tillerson’s more dovish leanings on foreign policy.
Secretary Tillerson was completely blindsided by the firing and found out the end of his service through President Trump’s twitter feed. Chief of Staff John Kelly had told Tillerson on Friday that the president would tweet something that he should look out for but gave no indication that his job would be in jeopardy. Trump has also nominated Gina Haspel, a lifelong CIA employee, to head the CIA. Her nomination is very controversial because she helped administer enhanced interrogation at a CIA prison in Thailand during the Bush administration. She later participated in destroying the footage of these actions. Many Democrats have accused Gina Haspel of engaging in torture and as unfit to lead the CIA. Ultimately, this firing of Secretary Tillerson is just another example of the chaos and mismanagement present in the White House leadership and staff.
Last week, president Trump delivered his first State of the Union address, outlining his goals and policy proposals for the year to the American people. Trump continued to stress the themes such as illegal immigration and trade that he campaigned on in in 2016 that helped him get elected. However, this time the President included broad overtures to work with Democrats on a number of issues such as infrastructure and resolving the DACA issue. The President outlined his immigration proposal which includes a path to citizenship for 1.8 million illegal immigrants brought to the country by their parents as children, eliminating the Diversity Visa Lottery, ending chain migration, and increasing border security including funding for a border wall. However, many Democrats have pushed back on this proposal saying that these reforms are ill-informed changes. Finally, the President went over his accomplishments in 2017 including the tax reform bill and changes to the Veterans Affairs administration.
The State of the Union highlighted the divisiveness in Congress. After every few sentences, President Trump got a standing ovation from Republican members of Congress while Democrats on the other side of the room remained silent seated. The President included many of his guests in his speech to provide emotional and personal support to his policy proposals. For example when talking about North Korea, the President integrated a North Korean defector and the parents of Otto Warmbier, an American who died days after being released from North Korea. When talking about supporting veterans, Trump mentioned a boy who placed flags at veterans’ graves. Even though he made bipartisan overtures, many comments in his speech were divisive and partisan. President Trump talked harshly about criminal illegal immigrants and called for everyone to rise during the national anthem. Ultimately, the speech was very well received with around 75% of viewers approving of the speech in post viewing polls.
Politically Teen Blog 