Massive Budget Deal Passes Congress

http://www.newsweek.com

This week Congress passed a massive budget deal that would greatly increase both military and domestic discretionary spending. This two year budget deal provides more than $2.7 trillion in discretionary spending over the next two years and raises raises the debt ceiling until 2021 after the 2020 elections. The deal was an outright rejection of the 2011 Budget Control Act, passed with support from the tea party movement, which placed strict caps on both domestic and military discretionary spending. The deal sets spending at about $324 billion above the spending caps in the 2011 law. Additionally, the deal includes $77 billion in cuts to mandatory spending programs as offsets.

The deal was heavily supported by Democrats who were eager to end the threat of sequestration which in their view prevented the government from investing in important domestic priorities. Some Republicans and President Trump backed the deal due to the large increase in military spending which they believe is necessary for military readiness. However, many conservative Republicans who ran multiple campaigns on the issue of fiscal responsibility and the need to cut spending lambasted the deal, saying it needlessly increases the debt and goes back on their promises to voters.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) heavily criticized Republicans who supported the deal and pondered that the deal signaled the end of the Tea Party. Sen. Paul proposed an amendment that would cap spending at low levels and pass a balanced budget amendment, but it was rejected by the Senate. The House of Representatives passed the deals by a vote of 284-149, buoyed mostly by support of Democrats and Republican defense hawks. The Senate passed the measure by a vote of 67-28 with most of the opposition from Republicans upset about the cost. Washington seems unconcerned about the deficit and continues on a path to fiscal unsustainability.

Despite Widespread Approval, Bipartisan Criminal Justice Bill Faces Gridlock in the Senate

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After the November elections, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) made it his priority to pass criminal justice reform during the lame duck session of Congress. The House had already passed the First Step Act which aims to reform the federal prison system and reduce recidivism rates that trap individuals in the criminal justice system. The Senate Judiciary Committee modified the bill by adding sentence reductions for low level drug offenders. The bill has obtained widespread support across the political spectrum particularly among libertarian Democratic and Republicans who have decried the devastating impact of the current criminal justice system on communities of color in the United States.

However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has posed a major roadblock to the passage of the First Step Act by refusing to bring the bill to a floor vote unless it has a majority backing among Senate Republicans. He has been wary of having a vote on a bill that so divides the Republican caucus. Supporters of the bill like Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) have claimed that the bill has well surpassed majority Republican support, but Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) has disputed these assertions. The bill gained a large boost after President Donald Trump announced his support for the legislation on Twitter after aggressively lobbying from his son in law Jared Kushner who has made criminal justice reform his pet issue.

With the time left in the 115th Congress dwindling, supporters have been scrambling to pressure McConnell to put the bill on the floor but have been so far unsuccessful. The latest push has been to include the First Step Act as part of the government funding bill that needs to pass by the end of this month, but some worry that this will imperil the passage of both because libertarians like Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) who support this bill oppose increased government spending while some Senators who might support the spending bill will vote against it due to the criminal justice reform bill attached to it. As the days number down, the country will be looking to Congress to see if they can make progress on a bipartisan issue or remain entrenched in continuous gridlock.

Pompeo Confirmation

http://www.cspan.com

Today, the US Senate confirmed CIA Director Mike Pompeo to be the Secretary of State of the United States. President Donald Trump nominated Pompeo after he fired the previous Secretary of State Rex Tillerson who he had multiple foreign policy disagreements with such as on the Iran Nuclear Deal. Pompeo was confirmed in a vote of 57-42 with many Democrats who are up for reelection in states Trump won supporting him. Previously, Pompeo’s nomination seemed like it was in serious peril because Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) opposed him and Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) was undecided.

Many Republicans in the White House and Senate Leadership were nervous that the nominee would not get through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee which is closely divided between the parties. Sen. Paul, an ardent libertarian, said he was going to vote no because he viewed Pompeo as too hawkish and worried that his foreign policy views would bring the United States into more overseas wars. However, minutes before the committee voted on the nominee, Sen. Paul switched positions and decided to support the nomination after getting assurances from Pompeo that he would try to get the United States out of Afghanistan. Given that his nomination was certain to be confirmed, many vulnerable Democrats jumped on and supported Pompeo to avoid political retribution in the upcoming election.

Bipartisan Spending Deal

http://www.npr.org

After months of Continuing Resolutions and short term spending gaps, Congress finally agreed on a bipartisan deal to fund the government for fiscal year 2017. Republican and Democratic leadership in Congress agreed on spending levels for defense and domestic spending that was hundreds of billions over the levels agreed to in the Budget Control Act of 2011. Many defense hawks in the Republican Party believed that the defense sequester had negatively impacted the readiness of the US military and pushed for large increases in defense spending over the previous caps. Democrats, however, insisted on spending parity and pushed for a similar increase for domestic social programs. Both parties came to agreement on the caps and over the past months have been engaged in negotiation on what the money will be spent on and what other pieces of legislation should be included in the omnibus bill.

After a series of tense negotiations, the parties failed to reach an agreement on a stabilization passage for Obamacare and a resolution for DACA recipients. President Donald Trump had rejected an offer by Democrats for $25 billion of border wall money in exchange for a path to citizenship for 1.8 million young illegal immigrants. Other points of tension in the spending debate is whether money should be provided to support the Gateway project to create a tunnel between New York City and New Jersey as well as provisions regarding funding for Planned Parenthood and abortion. Some important funding provisions in the bill are billions in funding for infrastructure and money to help combat the opioid crisis.

The funding bill was vehemently opposed by fiscal conservatives such as Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) as well as prominent conservative media personalities Fox News Anchor Tucker Carlson and author Ann Coulter. Many conservatives believe that this bill is an example of overspending in Washington when there already is a debt crisis. Many have cemented the Republican party’s departure from policies of fiscal restraint and austerity under the Obama administration. However, the omnibus bill passed both houses of Congress with comfortable bipartisan majorities. While it was widely believed that President Trump would sign the bill, the president released a tweet criticized the bill and pondered whether he should veto it. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis called the president urging him to sign the bill in order to bolster the military. In the bill signing ceremony, the president listed his grievances will the omnibus and blasted Congress for irresponsible spending and the GOP for not pursing conservative policies. While this fiscal year was just resolved, the next budget and spending deal is needed to be made in the near future.

A Packed Early 2018

http://www.slate.com

After a sweeping tax reform victory in December, Congressional leaders face a packed to do list in the early months of 2018. President Donald Trump, cabinet officials, and Congressional leaders including Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) came to Camp David to plan their strategy in the months to come. First on the list is finding an bipartisan agreement to fund the government passed January 19 to avoid a government shutdown. Democrats have insisted on spending parity between defense and non-defense discretionary spending while Republicans want to just increase defense spending while keeping an eye on the deficit. Additionally, Democrats want to attach a DACA solution to give work permits to undocumented workers who were brought to the United States as children. While there is bipartisan support for finding a solution, there are disagreements in what the solution should be. Republicans are insisting that border security measures be included and that only legal status, not citizenship should be given to the so called Dreamers.

In the latest twist, President Donald Trump has sent Congress a list of hardline immigration measures he would need to support a DACA agreement including funding for a wall on the border with Mexico, ending the visa lottery system, and ending chain migration. Before his requests, negotiators already had trouble coming to an agreement with some Republicans lambasting Democrats as not willing to negotiate anything on border security. Furthermore, Congress must extend CHIP the program that provides health insurance to poor children and extend Section 702 which allows surveillance of Americans by spy agencies. Many libertarian minded Democrats and Republicans like Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) have called for an overhaul of this program to protect the privacy of citizens. Finally, Congress must raise the debt ceiling which many conservatives say must be accompanied with reforms to reduce spending to address the debt.

The GOP has appeared divided on their next agenda issue they wish to pursue in 2018. Senate Republicans and President Trump are inclined to work on infrastructure in a bipartisan faction with a hope of investing $1 trillion in a combination of public and private dollars. The administration is poised to release a comprehensive document laying out their policy preferences on this topic in the coming weeks. However, some Republicans, especially in the House, are wary about spending hundreds of billions of dollars when the budget deficit is very large and the GOP just passed $1.5 trillion in tax cuts.

Others like Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) wish to embark on welfare reform by combining and streamlining different programs to create incentives to work, help people escape poverty, and cut the deficit. However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) expressed concern of passing another partisan bill and hurting chances in the 2018 midterms in what will already be a tough race. Finally, some Republicans want to return to repealing Obamacare which seems even more precarious since the majority in the Senate is down to 51-49. Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) want to resurrect their bill to turn health care policy to the states through block grants. Clearly, the first months of the year will be full of political drama from Washington.

Mitch McConnell’s Healthcare Dilemma

http://www.politico.com

On Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Senate Leadership unveiled their version of an Obamacare repeal and replace called the Better Care Reconciliation Act. Given the wide ideological differences within the Republican Conference, Republican leadership will have a hard time to find the 50 members that they need to pass the bill. The bill eliminates major pieces of Obamacare such as the individual mandate and employer mandate. The bill also changes the subsidy structure, phases out the Medicaid expansion, allows states to use waivers to eliminate Obamacare regulations, creates a fund for market stabilization and state innovation, and funds cost sharing subsidies for the next two years.

On one hand, many moderates have wanted to lessen the cuts to Medicaid in the future and protect people with pre-existing conditions. Many moderates believe that the changes in the bill goes too far and that many people will be kicked off health insurance. For example, Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) announced today he would oppose the bill due to extensive Medicaid cuts unless there was substantial changes. A pro-Trump super pac has announced an ad buy to pressure Sen. Heller to support the bill. Other senators such as Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) and Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) have also balked at the Medicaid cuts. Others such as Sen Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) have opposed the elimination of funding to Planned Parenthood.

On the other side, conservatives believe that the bill does not go far enough in repealing Obamacare. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) have announced opposition to the bill in current form. These senators believe that the bill does not succeed in lowering premiums because many of the regulations are still included such as community rating and guaranteed issue for people with pre-existing conditions. Sen. Rand Paul also lambasted the bill as Obamacare-lite due the similarity of the subsidy structure and a bailout to insurance companies due to the market stability fund. Sen. Ted Cruz has introduced an amendment called the Consumer Freedom amendment that will allow insurers to offer a plan that does not follow regulations if they offer one that does to lower premiums.

Leader McConnell will face a hard time this week trying to unify his conference around one bill given these stark differences. However, this opposition might be just a ploy to further these senators’ individual agendas and their amendments. Nevertheless, Mitch McConnell is a tactical political leader who knows how to push legislation through and always has a trick up his sleeve. If anyone could pass this bill, it would be Mitch McConnell.

Is the Trump Agenda in Peril?

http://www.washingtonpost.com

After President Trump and Speaker Paul Ryan’s effort to repeal and replace Obamacare failed last week, the rest of Trump’s agenda has been put in jeopardy. The president’s reputation as a dealmaker has been brought into question and well his efforts to put together a legislative majority in Congress. The healthcare effort was ripped apart by purist conservatives in the Freedom Caucus who refused to get on board any bill that was not a clean repeal of Obamacare. As a result, the concessions given to appease the hard conservatives alienated many moderate representatives in the Tuesday Group. The week after has revealed a divide between the Freedom Caucus and the rest of the party with the President directly calling out members on twitter.

The failure has brought in the possibility that tax reform will end in the same fashion with the same dynamics within the Republican conference. With tax reform, representatives are dealing with the whole economy and have to fight off multiple special interest groups who want to keep their tax carve outs. Another problem for Republican leadership is that the border-adjustment tax that they want to implement is being opposed by the same groups that sunk the American Health Care Act. If this tax effort is successful, it will definitely help keep the president’s agenda.

The closest win that Donald Trump could have is with his Supreme Court Nominee Neil Gorsuch. This week the Senate looks poised to debate and vote on his nomination. Democrats fueled by liberal grassroots look ready to support a filibuster against his nomination, but Senate Republicans are vowing to get him confirmed one way or other including using the so-called nuclear option to kill the filibuster. If Gorsuch is successfully confirmed, the Republican agenda will gain momentum for future items.

Another upcoming legislative fight is over the budget and the debt ceiling. The President’s preliminary budget blueprint laid out by OMB director Mick Mulvaney showed deep budget cuts to non-military discretionary spending while increasing defense spending. This seems difficult to pass Congress and the debate will be fought over small items such as funding a wall along the Southern border. April 28 is the deadline to fund the government and to avert a government shutdown, but Congressional leaders are only allocating one week to have debate and to pass a budget resolution. Another fight is in August when Congress has to raise the debt ceiling. The same people who sunk the healthcare bill will want deep spending cuts enacted to support raising the debt ceiling.

Another major agenda issue for Donald Trump will be his infrastructure plan. The President has declared during the campaign that he wants a $1 trillion investment through public-private partnerships into the nation’s infrastructure. This plan will likely include about $100-$200 billion in direct federal spending and the rest in private funds. Democrats are more willing to have more direct spending while Republican deficit hawks will want more private investment and a plan that does not add to the federal deficit. The President is likely very interested in this topic given his history as a builder during his private life.

Finally, there is the question on what to do to with Obamacare. Now that the original plan is dead, Speaker Ryan, the President, and Vice President Pence have repeatedly said that they are continuing talks about what to do next. As recently as today, President Trump went golfing with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) to talk about the future of an Obamacare repeal and replace plan. One major discussion is about combing what would have been in part 1 of the Obamacare repeal bill with the items in part 3 of Paul Ryan’s plan. If the rest of the agenda is implemented, Republicans will likely return to this issue in late fall to spring of next year. Overall, there looks like there will be a tough road ahead for Trump’s agenda that will be slowed down by Democrats on one side and the far-right on the other.

The End of Obamacare

http://www.cnn.com

With the Republicans controlling all parts of government, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the President, they can finally fulfill their promise for the last 8 years which is to repeal and replace Obamacare. The Republican campaign against the Affordable Care Act directly led to successful midterm campaigns allowing the Republicans to take back the house in 2010 and the Senate in 2014. After years of campaign rhetoric, the Republicans finally have the chance to carry out what they have wished for.

Earlier this week, the Senate passed the budget for the upcoming fiscal year which is the first step in repealing Obamacare. It was able to pass with 51 votes because a filibuster is not allowed on budgets. This Friday afternoon, the House also passed the budget. This budget faced fierce opposition from Democrats who believe the Republicans will repeal without replacing allowing millions of low-income Americans to lose their healthcare. The bill also faced resistance from Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and a small number of representatives. Some such as Sen. Rand Paul and other fiscal conservatives believe that the budget fails to address deficit concerns. Other moderate Republicans believe that this passage will open up a possibility of a repeal without a replacement.

The next step for the repeal of the ACA is the creation of a budget reconciliation bill which is a bill taking portions out of the budget. This strategy only requires 51 votes to pass. This is how the Republicans will remove much of the taxes and mandates for Obamacare. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) has also stated that the GOP will include a section defunding Planned Parenthood in the reconciliation bill.

The Republicans are still divided on strategy on a replacement but share goals for creating more healthcare coverage, lower costs, and expanding the amount of people with healthcare. Democrats have started to spread a narrative that the Republican have no plan and want to leave millions without healthcare. Some of the leading plans have been led by Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Rand Paul. Certain aspects of their plans include creating high-risk pools for those with pre-existing conditions, breaking down healthcare boundaries around state lines to create competition, and allowing small businesses to join together to create large insurance pools. Ultimately, the future of Obamacare looks bleak.