Impeachment Inquiry Continues: Ukraine Quid Pro Quo?

http://www.bbc.com

After Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry into potential wrongdoing by President Trump in the withholding of military aid to Ukraine, Democratic investigations have quickly ramped up after hearing from key witnesses involved in the scandal. Testimony from officials such as the former ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor and ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland have implicated the president in a quid pro quo where military aid for Ukraine was tied to opening investigations into the DNC and Hunter Biden, the son of his potential rival Joe Biden.

These revelations have bolstered criticisms of President Trump by Democrats in Congress and have created a framework for a potential impeachment after the conclusion of the investigations. Democrats believe that the president’s use of the power of his office to find dirt on his opponents violates federal law and is a threat to the American democratic system. They believe that the steady flow of incriminating evidence and testimony is slowly changing public opinion in favor of impeachment.

Republicans, however, have been quick to defend the President. While some have found it difficult to defend the president on the core allegations, stalwart defenders of President Trump in the House of Representatives have been quick to attack the process of the impeachment inquiry. They argue that an official vote should be taken in the House like the two previous impeachment investigations to provide the president fair due process and allow Republicans to have subpoena power. A group of House Republicans stormed a closed door, classified hearing from one witness to protest the process which they believe does not allow input of Republican voices.

President Trump has become frustrated by what he views as a weak response to the impeachment inquiry. However, Democrats have become determined to continue investigating and revealing potentially damning information that could establish a clear quid pro quo implicating the president. While it seems likely that the House is set for impeaching the president, it remains unclear if Republican Senators will turn on the president and convict him.

Massive Budget Deal Passes Congress

http://www.newsweek.com

This week Congress passed a massive budget deal that would greatly increase both military and domestic discretionary spending. This two year budget deal provides more than $2.7 trillion in discretionary spending over the next two years and raises raises the debt ceiling until 2021 after the 2020 elections. The deal was an outright rejection of the 2011 Budget Control Act, passed with support from the tea party movement, which placed strict caps on both domestic and military discretionary spending. The deal sets spending at about $324 billion above the spending caps in the 2011 law. Additionally, the deal includes $77 billion in cuts to mandatory spending programs as offsets.

The deal was heavily supported by Democrats who were eager to end the threat of sequestration which in their view prevented the government from investing in important domestic priorities. Some Republicans and President Trump backed the deal due to the large increase in military spending which they believe is necessary for military readiness. However, many conservative Republicans who ran multiple campaigns on the issue of fiscal responsibility and the need to cut spending lambasted the deal, saying it needlessly increases the debt and goes back on their promises to voters.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) heavily criticized Republicans who supported the deal and pondered that the deal signaled the end of the Tea Party. Sen. Paul proposed an amendment that would cap spending at low levels and pass a balanced budget amendment, but it was rejected by the Senate. The House of Representatives passed the deals by a vote of 284-149, buoyed mostly by support of Democrats and Republican defense hawks. The Senate passed the measure by a vote of 67-28 with most of the opposition from Republicans upset about the cost. Washington seems unconcerned about the deficit and continues on a path to fiscal unsustainability.

Support for Impeachment Builds Among Democrats

http://www.newsweek.com

Within the House Democratic Caucus, support for impeachment of President Trump has slowly been building. Fueled by the progressive base of the party, many of the more liberal members of the Democratic Caucus such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) have publicly came out to support the impeachment of the President due what they view as a history of criminal activity. Their support for impeachment has been strengthened after the release of the Mueller Report which showed possible instances of obstruction of justice by President Trump in the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

The House Democrats have launched multiple investigations into the Trump administration, but the White House has put up multiple roadblocks in the progress of the investigations. The White House has refused to provide subpoenaed documents and has instructed important witnesses to the investigations such as former White House Counsel Don McGahn to refuse to comply with subpoenas to testify before congressional committees. Many Democratic representatives, especially on the House Judiciary Committee, have become fed up with the administration and have called for an impeachment inquiry because they believe it will give more credence about the validity of the committee’s actions in court.

However, Democratic leadership in the House, in particular House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), have tried to quiet talk of impeachment. They believe that impeachment will be bad for Democrats politically because it is opposed by a majority of Americans and the political failure of the Republican Party after the impeachment of President Bill Clinton in the late 1990s. Democrats fear that impeachment will only strengthen President Trump going into the 2020 election in the eyes of the American people because there is little chance that the Republican controlled Senate will vote to convict and evict the President from office. Speaker Pelosi has tried to walk a fine line by accusing the President of suspect and possible criminal activity but refusing to open an impeachment inquiry.

Speaker Pelosi’s position was further complicated when Special Counsel Robert Mueller unexpectedly made a public statement about his report. He reiterated his findings and said that the report did not clear President Trump of wrongdoing related to obstruction of justice. He said that he did not have the authority to indict and that it is the responsibility of Congress to make a decision based on the evidence. This statement clearly contradicted Attorney General Bill Barr’s portrayal of the findings and provided further fodder for Democrats pushing for impeachment. Special Counsel Mueller’s statement has pushed many House Democrats including those in swing districts like Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) to support impeachment of the President. As the pressure builds, it will up to Speaker Pelosi to make a decision on the possible impeachment of President Trump.

The GOP Senate Pushes Ahead with Reshaping the Federal Judiciary

http://www.politico.com

After gaining two seats in the 2018 elections, the Senate GOP has returned to confirming conservative nominees appointed by President Trump to important positions in the nation’s appellate courts. This week the Senate churned through nominees and confirmed four justices to the appellate courts. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has already teed up additional votes next week by filing cloture on two more nominees. Many of these justices have well established conservative bona fides including strong ties to the Federalist Society, a powerful conservative legal association. Faced with a divided Congress, Republicans believe that the best way they can enact their conservative agenda is by transforming the nation’s judiciary.

The four judges confirmed this week include Eric Miller, Allison Jones Rushing, Chad Readler, and Eric Murphy. All the judges have stellar resumes, graduated from the nation’s top law schools, and have high level clerking experience at the appellate or Supreme Court level. However, Democrats have pushed back on many of these nominees, saying that they lack sufficient legal experience, and in particular criticized Allison Jones Rushing for her young age of 37. Democrats have also pushed back on Chad Readler who played a central role in the lawsuit challenging Obamacare’s constitutionality.

Legal conservatives championed President Trump’s appointment of Neomi Rao to the DC Circuit because they believe that she will take on the administrative state over which the DC Circuit has significant jurisdiction. However, many Republicans in the Senate have expressed concerns over Rao’s personal views on abortion as well as controversial opinion articles about sexual assault she had written during college. To keep these wary Senators in check, the Judicial Crisis Network announced ad buys in the states of Senators with concerns about her nomination.

While President Trump has made many strides in confirming appellate judges, he has struggled to confirm many of his district court nominees in comparison with past presidents. A major contributing factor has been Democratic obstruction and their refusal to confirm many of these noncontroversial nominees by voice vote. As a result, Republican Senators have prepared a rules change that would drastically limit the minimum hours of debate for district court nominees, allowing Republicans to confirm these judges at a faster rate. The future developments in the confirmation battle over nominees to the federal judiciary will have a significant impact on the future of this nation.

Despite Widespread Approval, Bipartisan Criminal Justice Bill Faces Gridlock in the Senate

http://www.brietbart.com

After the November elections, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) made it his priority to pass criminal justice reform during the lame duck session of Congress. The House had already passed the First Step Act which aims to reform the federal prison system and reduce recidivism rates that trap individuals in the criminal justice system. The Senate Judiciary Committee modified the bill by adding sentence reductions for low level drug offenders. The bill has obtained widespread support across the political spectrum particularly among libertarian Democratic and Republicans who have decried the devastating impact of the current criminal justice system on communities of color in the United States.

However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has posed a major roadblock to the passage of the First Step Act by refusing to bring the bill to a floor vote unless it has a majority backing among Senate Republicans. He has been wary of having a vote on a bill that so divides the Republican caucus. Supporters of the bill like Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) have claimed that the bill has well surpassed majority Republican support, but Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) has disputed these assertions. The bill gained a large boost after President Donald Trump announced his support for the legislation on Twitter after aggressively lobbying from his son in law Jared Kushner who has made criminal justice reform his pet issue.

With the time left in the 115th Congress dwindling, supporters have been scrambling to pressure McConnell to put the bill on the floor but have been so far unsuccessful. The latest push has been to include the First Step Act as part of the government funding bill that needs to pass by the end of this month, but some worry that this will imperil the passage of both because libertarians like Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) who support this bill oppose increased government spending while some Senators who might support the spending bill will vote against it due to the criminal justice reform bill attached to it. As the days number down, the country will be looking to Congress to see if they can make progress on a bipartisan issue or remain entrenched in continuous gridlock.

Breaking Down the 2018 Midterm Results

http://www.andalusiastarnews.com

After a long fought campaign season, the 2018 election season came to an end last week when millions of voters across the country came the polls to decide the future of the United States. Polling stations saw record breaking turnout levels, unusual for a midterm election. Before the results were counted, many election forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicted large gains for the Democrats in the House of Representatives and modest gains for the Republicans in the Senate. These predictions turned out to be exactly correct.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats took back control of the House for the first time since 2010 and seem to have gained 38 seats. Democrats throughout the campaign were able to successfully capitalize on their energized base to raise record sums for their candidates. Democrats seized on the shifting political landscape to take many districts particularly in suburban areas that seemed like they would vote for Republicans in perpetuity but are unhappy with President Trump’s leadership style and policies. Many of these districts like NJ 7th, CA 45th, TX 32nd, GA 7th, MN 3rd, and IL 6th have large numbers of white college educated voters who used to be strictly Republican but are quickly moving towards the Democratic party. A record number of the new Democratic representatives are women or persons of color. Additionally, many of the new members of Congress are veterans, a result of Democratic recruiting of individuals with military records to run for office. Some of these congresspersons elect include Mikie Sherrill of NJ-11, a former navy pilot, Kim Schrier of WA-8, a physician, and Antonio Delgado of NY-19, a Rhodes scholar.

In the Senate, Republicans were able to expand their majority by picking off Democrats in states that President Trump won by double digits. Republican candidates Kevin Cramer, Josh Hawley, Mike Braun, and Rick Scott were able to defeat Democratic Senators Heidi Heitcamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, and Bill Nelson of Florida respectively. However, Republicans lost Senate seats in Nevada and Arizona. Democrats were defending over twice as many seats as Republicans including many in vulnerable states. This expansion of Republican seats will allow Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to continue his agenda of confirming judges to the many district and circuit court vacancies in the federal judiciary. Ultimately, it will be interesting to see how the parties interact in divided government, particularly to see how President Trump will respond to greater oversight and investigations of his administration from the Democrats in the House. While the general consensus is that not much will get done in the 116th Congress, the American people can only hope that the parties come together to solve the pressing issues that face this country.

Countdown to the Midterm Elections

http://www.nitty-grittynews.com

The midterm elections are just over 3 weeks away and campaign season is in full swing. Voters are being bombarded by incessant political ads on cable and the internet as well as being mailed frequent political mailers. Candidates and incumbent congressmen and senators are home in their districts trying to mobilize their bases and win over swing voters. Political tensions are high between Republicans and Democrats who are trying to support their respective candidates.

In the House elections, Republicans are on defense defending dozens of vulnerable districts giving Democrats an opportunity to take back the House of Representatives. Many voters are upset over the Trump administration and the GOP attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare. In particular, Republicans are struggling to win over college educated suburban voters who are particularly dissatisfied with the Trump presidency. Democrats are targeting the 25 seats that are held by Republican incumbents but were won by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections.

In the Senate elections, Democrats are on defense because 10 Democratic Senators are up for reelection in states that President Donald Trump in 2016, including 5 states where Trump won by over 10%. Republicans are trying to pick up seats in states like Missouri, North Dakota, Florida, and Indiana while trying to hold on to seats where Democrats have a chance to pick up in Tennessee, Nevada, and Arizona. Republicans have recently been bolstered by the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh whose confirmation fight has increased Republican interest in the Midterm elections.

Overall, Democrats have all the advantages: higher fundraising, higher enthusiasm, and a national sentiment that is in opposition to President Trump and the Republican Party. Democrats are likely to gain dozens of seats in the House and likely take back the House. However, due to the unfavorable map, Republicans will probably gain seats in the Senate. No matter the results of the election, the next Congress will be more gridlocked than ever with hyper partisanship and ideological extremism dominating the Congress. However, the results of the election will be very interesting to watch and see how it affects the future of the nation.

Pompeo Confirmation

http://www.cspan.com

Today, the US Senate confirmed CIA Director Mike Pompeo to be the Secretary of State of the United States. President Donald Trump nominated Pompeo after he fired the previous Secretary of State Rex Tillerson who he had multiple foreign policy disagreements with such as on the Iran Nuclear Deal. Pompeo was confirmed in a vote of 57-42 with many Democrats who are up for reelection in states Trump won supporting him. Previously, Pompeo’s nomination seemed like it was in serious peril because Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) opposed him and Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) was undecided.

Many Republicans in the White House and Senate Leadership were nervous that the nominee would not get through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee which is closely divided between the parties. Sen. Paul, an ardent libertarian, said he was going to vote no because he viewed Pompeo as too hawkish and worried that his foreign policy views would bring the United States into more overseas wars. However, minutes before the committee voted on the nominee, Sen. Paul switched positions and decided to support the nomination after getting assurances from Pompeo that he would try to get the United States out of Afghanistan. Given that his nomination was certain to be confirmed, many vulnerable Democrats jumped on and supported Pompeo to avoid political retribution in the upcoming election.

A Packed Early 2018

http://www.slate.com

After a sweeping tax reform victory in December, Congressional leaders face a packed to do list in the early months of 2018. President Donald Trump, cabinet officials, and Congressional leaders including Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) came to Camp David to plan their strategy in the months to come. First on the list is finding an bipartisan agreement to fund the government passed January 19 to avoid a government shutdown. Democrats have insisted on spending parity between defense and non-defense discretionary spending while Republicans want to just increase defense spending while keeping an eye on the deficit. Additionally, Democrats want to attach a DACA solution to give work permits to undocumented workers who were brought to the United States as children. While there is bipartisan support for finding a solution, there are disagreements in what the solution should be. Republicans are insisting that border security measures be included and that only legal status, not citizenship should be given to the so called Dreamers.

In the latest twist, President Donald Trump has sent Congress a list of hardline immigration measures he would need to support a DACA agreement including funding for a wall on the border with Mexico, ending the visa lottery system, and ending chain migration. Before his requests, negotiators already had trouble coming to an agreement with some Republicans lambasting Democrats as not willing to negotiate anything on border security. Furthermore, Congress must extend CHIP the program that provides health insurance to poor children and extend Section 702 which allows surveillance of Americans by spy agencies. Many libertarian minded Democrats and Republicans like Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) have called for an overhaul of this program to protect the privacy of citizens. Finally, Congress must raise the debt ceiling which many conservatives say must be accompanied with reforms to reduce spending to address the debt.

The GOP has appeared divided on their next agenda issue they wish to pursue in 2018. Senate Republicans and President Trump are inclined to work on infrastructure in a bipartisan faction with a hope of investing $1 trillion in a combination of public and private dollars. The administration is poised to release a comprehensive document laying out their policy preferences on this topic in the coming weeks. However, some Republicans, especially in the House, are wary about spending hundreds of billions of dollars when the budget deficit is very large and the GOP just passed $1.5 trillion in tax cuts.

Others like Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) wish to embark on welfare reform by combining and streamlining different programs to create incentives to work, help people escape poverty, and cut the deficit. However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) expressed concern of passing another partisan bill and hurting chances in the 2018 midterms in what will already be a tough race. Finally, some Republicans want to return to repealing Obamacare which seems even more precarious since the majority in the Senate is down to 51-49. Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) want to resurrect their bill to turn health care policy to the states through block grants. Clearly, the first months of the year will be full of political drama from Washington.

A Tossup in Alabama with the GOP Agenda at Stake

http://www.telzilla.com

Tomorrow, the entire nation will be watching the highly contested and competitive Alabama special election between Roy Moore (R) and Doug Jones (D). The election is being held to replace the seat former Alabama senator and current Attorney General Jeff Sessions. His replacement appointed by former Alabama governor Robert Bentley (R) Luther Strange lost to Roy Moore in a surprising runoff defeat. Strange was supported by President Trump along with the vast majority of the Republican senators.

Roy Moore ran as a very social conservative was previously a member of the Alabama Supreme Court. In that position, Moore has created controversy by refusing to take down a monument to the 10 commandments after a court order and instructing judges in Alabama not to issue same-sex marriage licenses after the Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage. Additionally, Moore has made controversial comments saying that Muslims should not be allowed to serve in Congress, homosexuality should be illegal, and that all amendments to the Constitution after the 10th should be repealed. Roy Moore has been backed by Steve Bannon and has run an anti-establishment campaign specifically targeting Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

Because of Moore’s controversies, Doug Jones, a former prosecutor, had made the race more competitive than a race would be in deep red Alabama. However, recently a groundbreaking Washington Post story was published detailing the accounts of several women who said they were sexually harassed or assaulted by Moore when they were teenagers and Moore was a District Attorney in his 30s. Additionally, other reports have come out that Moore was banned from going to the local mall because of his predatory behavior towards teenage girls. This development initially gave Doug Jones a small lead in the race as many many college educated suburban white Republicans increased their support for Doug Jones. However, as of now, the recent polls have shown Roy Moore with a slight lead in the polls. This lead can be attributed to the many sexual harassment scandals across the country that have normalized Moore’s actions as well as President Donald Trump’s recent support for Moore and his campaigning for him. After these allegations came out, millions of dollars came to support Jones’s campaign as well as support of national Democrats such as Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and former President Barack Obama.

The outcome of this race will have a drastic effect on the ability of the Republican Congress to pass their agenda items in 2018. With a slim 52 seat majority in the Senate, the Republicans cannot afford to lose any more senators of they will have even more trouble passing legislation like an Obamacare repeal, an infrastructure bill, or welfare reform. However, Republicans are wary of having Roy Moore attached to their national brand in the upcoming 2018 elections. For example, Sen. Richard Selby (R-AL) has publicly stated that he will not support Moore in the election and Sen. Jeff Flake wrote a check to Doug Jones’s campaign. Either way, the outcome of this election will be another problem for the Republican party.